Heisman Hopefuls: Why They Will and Won't Win the Award

By Joseph Barry on July 22, 2013

Just as common as preseason picks for the national championship are experts’ lists of Heisman Hopefuls, a group of elite players predicted to take home the coveted Heisman Trophy. According to the official Heisman website, “…the Heisman Memorial Trophy will be awarded to an individual designated as the outstanding college football player in the United States.” Sometimes the winner is predictable from the start (Sam Bradford, for example) and other times they come from nowhere (see Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel). If nothing else, though, it is fun to speculate who could be taking home the historic hardware, so without further ado, here are my top 5 Heisman Hopefuls and why they will or won’t bring home the trophy this season.

The legendary Heisman Trophy in all its glory; photo from pennlaw.tumblr.com

 Johnny Manziel

Why He Will – Every 2013 Heisman Hopeful list should begin with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. In just one season as a redshirt freshman, Manziel has set the bar even higher for SEC quarterbacks. In 2007, SEC fans saw a new type of quarterback in Florida’s Tim Tebow, who amassed 3,286 passing yards and 32 passing TDs to go along with 895 rushing yards and 23 TDs on the ground. A short three seasons later in 2010, Auburn’s Cam Newton one-upped Tebow in total offense by producing a combined 4,327 yards (2,854 in the air; 1,473 rushing.) Enter Johnny “Football” in 2012: he set a new SEC record for total offense (5,116 yards (!!!!) to accompany 51 TDs, which is one more TD than Newton). That number is ridiculous for someone in the Mid-American Conference; Manziel did it against the toughest division (the SEC West) in the toughest conference (the Southeastern Conference) in college football. Team record also plays a big part for all Heisman Hopefuls, and it’ll be tough for Manziel to have an encore more impressive than beating Alabama in his freshman year. He’ll likely have to beat both Alabama and LSU while leading his team to the SEC Championship game, which will be tough but by no means impossible. However, the Aggies don’t have to play SEC East heavyweights Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, so in that aspect they avoid what could have been an even tougher lineup. Players don’t just have a season like Manziel’s freshman campaign due to luck. The kid has serious skill and if he is anywhere near his total offense mark of a year ago, watch out for Manziel to be the first Heisman repeat since Ohio State’s Archie Griffin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qauScC-JJKk

Why He Won’t – Since the Heisman Trophy has been around since 1935, only one player has ever won the prestigious award twice. Even though Johnny “HeisManziel” won the award as a freshman, odds are still against him to win again. While playing in the SEC West is a huge asset if you can win, you still have to play against some of the top talent in the country week in and week out. Also, these teams now have better film on Manziel and can attempt to plan accordingly better. Manziel will have to play this season without left-hand man Luke Joeckel (A&M’s left tackle who was taken #2 overall in the 2013 NFL Draft.) This isn’t to say that Manziel has a complete scrub protecting his blindside. Jake Matthews, son of NFL Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, will slide over from the right to left to anchor the left side of the line. However, this will have a chain reaction that will see Cedric Ogbuehi move from guard to tackle. Some players can easily move around on the line with no drop-off (see former Alabama player Barrett Jones); however, if there are complications, the Aggies have only two games to iron everything out before the Crimson Tide come to town. Saban rarely loses in revenge games (games in which he lost to the opponent in the previous meeting) and Bama will be hungry. It isn’t so much that Manziel will have a significant drop-off in numbers, especially since the schedule is slightly easier than that of a year ago; the fact is more that voters will require Johnny to be even more spectacular in order to defend his Heisman crown.

Teddy Bridgewater 

Why He Will – Teddy Bridgewater will start his junior season with many more expectations than he had a year ago. He is being hailed as the best QB prospect in college football this year and is the only real threat to being taken ahead of South Carolina stud Jadeveon Clowney in the 2014 NFL Draft (presumably to a team that desperately needs a quarterback.) He differs from Manziel as a QB in that, while he is fully capable of taking off if the defense gives it to him, Bridgewater won’t immediately scramble if his first option is not open. This isn’t a shot at Johnny Football; it is a statement that Bridgewater has a higher football IQ and possesses the patience to go through his progression. Playing in the brand new American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East) should help Bridgewater if his Cards can finish undefeated. He will likely put up monster numbers against a schedule that sees no preseason top 25 teams (the toughest games as of right now look to be away games at Kentucky and Cincinnati.) While it may not result in a national championship birth, there is no reason that Louisville should not finish the regular season undefeated, and Bridgewater would likely be the main reason for a 12-0 record in December. Despite the Louisville offense returning only five starters (depending on which source you read, this number fluctuates; different sources have different definitions of ‘returning starter’), eleven of Bridgewater’s returning receivers have at least ten receptions in their career. That experience will prove to be key as Teddy tries to build upon his impressive 2012 season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsPjOnmFVK4

Why He Won’t – The American Athletic Conference is easily the worst of the power six conferences that have tie-ins to BCS bowl games. One loss by the Cards and the Heisman Hopeful Bridgewater would be lucky just to make it to New York as a finalist. While the Cards will be favorites in every one of their games, Cincinnati (who has made double digit wins a common thing over the past few seasons) and Kentucky (the program has seemed reenergized since the hiring of new head coach Mike Stoops) could play spoiler to U of L this season. Also, though he did play through most of it, Bridgewater seemed to be prone to injury last season. And, while the award goes to the most outstanding individual player, it is hard to overlook that team success has a big influence on the outcome. Six of the last nine Heisman Trophy winners’ teams were playing in the national championship game. It isn’t so much that his team has to be in the national championship game, but it is unlikely Bridgewater will take home the hardware if his Cardinals are not at least in a BCS bowl game. Another reason for that is if the Cards don’t make a BCS game, another player from a more prestigious football conference likely helped his team get to a bigger game; thus, in the eyes of the voting committee that player would be much more deserving of the award than Teddy.

Braxton Miller

Why He Will – Miller is essentially a more athletic Tim Tebow in the uptempo Urban Meyer offense. Miller isn’t going to run as many people over as Tebow did, but he definitely has the ability to break some ankles this season. After an offseason of working some with quarterback guru George Whitfield (who has also worked with Clemson QB Tajh Boyd and Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel this summer, to name a few of his pupils) in San Diego, as well as having a season of experience under the new system (a season in which he threw for 2039 yards to go with 1271 rushing yards.) What could make Whitfield working with Miller more important than Boyd and Manziel in particular is that Tajh and Johnny were already really good passers last season; Braxton was inconsistent during the season and the average fan could tell that while potential is there, a lot of it still needs to be tapped into. While Boyd and Manziel undoubtedly became better passers as well, Miller’s improvement should be more visible. Here is something scary to think about. This offseason, offensive coordinator and QB coach Tom Herman mentioned that nearly every time Braxton ran the ball this season, it was a designed run. Think about that for a minute. Johnny Football had 1,473 rushing yards, and it is fair to say a good amount came from both designed plays and scrambling when the pass play broke down. This article claims that Herman approximated that only about 200 of Braxton’s 1271 rushing yards came from scrambling. (Check out the link; it gives good insight about how scary good Miller can be this season.) So if Braxton can figure out when to scramble this year, both his rushing yards and completion percentages will easily eclipse his 2012 numbers. Also, the Buckeyes 2013 slate is slightly easier than their perfect 12-0 season. Ohio State misses out on Michigan State and Nebraska in the final season of the Leaders and Legends Divisions. The critical games are Wisconsin (who is expected to take a step back with the graduation of RB Montee Ball and will break in a new head coach after Bret Bielema bolted to Arkansas) and, as always, Michigan. Finish 13-0 (the regular season plus the Big Ten championship game) or at least 12-1 and Braxton Miller should be right in the thick of the race for Heisman Hopefuls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGJCrYtEhY8

Why He Won’t – Braxton Miller is essentially in a situation similar to Teddy Bridgewater, just with a little more wiggle room. While Bridgewater needs to go undefeated to have a realistic shot of winning the Heisman, Miller could possibly lose one game and still claim the prize. While it should be considerably better than the American Athletic Conference, the Big Ten is still relatively weak. Ohio State and Michigan figure to be the major players, while Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin round out ESPN’s preseason top 25. How much can we really expect from anyone whose mascot is something other than a nut or wolverine? Last season the conference started off by having #8 ranked Michigan get blown out by Alabama. As an encore in week 2, Nebraska and Wisconsin lost to Pac-12 teams despite the two Big Ten schools being higher ranked in the polls. The Big Ten desperately needs to improve its national image, so you wonder if this will drop Miller’s Heisman stock at all; two losses seem like they would effectively end his chances of winning. Also, something that could prevent Braxton from winning the award that he wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed by would be the continued emergence of running back Carlos Hyde. (Let’s pretend for a moment that Hyde’s suspension will be lifted.) Through the first five games, Hyde only had 158 rushing yards (though he did miss two of the five games to injury) and 2 TDs. The last seven games were a world of difference, as Hyde piled up 812 rushing yards while reaching the end zone 14 times via the ground. If Hyde plays at that level for the entire 2013 season, Miller likely won’t be asked to run as much. With rushing yards down, it’d be hard to make a solid case for Miller unless his passing yards are that much better.

Marcus Mariota

Why He Will – When you are the starting quarterback of the most electrifying offense in the country, especially an offense that you are going into your third season under (Mariota is a redshirt sophomore), it seems like a given that you would at least be on the list of Heisman Hopefuls; however, don’t think for a second that Mariota is only on this list because he’s a product of his system. Mariota answered everyone’s puzzlement over why former Ducks quarterback Darron Thomas left a year early, only to go undrafted in the NFL Draft. Some people don’t realize how good Mariota was this past season, likely because he was slightly overshadowed by another redshirt freshman named Johnny Manziel. Mariota actually had six more passing touchdowns than Manziel and had a better completion percentage by 0.5%. Mariota is also a very mobile quarterback, which is important for the Oregon offense. After a year of playing experience under his belt and leading his team to a 12-1 record and a Fiesta Bowl victory, Mariota can only really improve by doing the few things he didn’t last season: beat Stanford, win the Pac-12, play for the Rose Bowl or national title. If he accomplishes these task while improving his numbers as expected, Mariota will be lifting the trophy high at the end of the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OOba5A5V-A

Why He Won’t – It’s fair to point out that Oregon could potentially face some growing pains as a team with their new head coach, Mark Helfrich. While it does help the Helfrich was promoted from offensive coordinator, some people forget that former head coach Chip Kelly was the one calling all the plays. Don’t expect this to slow down the Ducks much, but just pointing a possible reason Mariota’s numbers could dwindle. Also, Mariota has a great group of running backs led by De’Anthony Thomas. This wouldn’t affect his rushing numbers in regard to running the read option, but it is possible that Coach Helfrich could call more handoffs to the backs in order to spread the wealth and keep the offense fresh. Also, you cannot ignore the Ducks’ biggest obstacle: Stanford. The Cardinal boast an SEC-caliber defense and finally figured out how to beat the high-powered Ducks last season. Especially since this game is at the Farm (Stanford’s stadium), the Ducks, and Mariota, will need to put a lot more points on the board than the 14 they managed last season in the OT loss. No Pac-12 Title, no Heisman.

Tajh Boyd

Why He Will – What Clemson misses out on by not playing Coastal Division foes Miami, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina this season, they make up for by playing Georgia and South Carolina of the SEC in addition to Florida State (a game that will likely decide who wins the ACC Atlantic Division.) Boyd, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, was a big reason that Clemson went 11-2 last season and, after turning down the NFL to play his senior year, will be the reason they prosper or fail in 2013. Boyd can be a duel-threat QB (as his 514 rushing yards and 10 TDs from 2012 indicate) but he is much more willing to stay in the pocket than other Heisman Hopefuls (Manziel, Mariota, Miller). Also, when you have a threat like WR Sammy Watkins to throw to, you can generally get away with some questionable throws and look brilliant. If Clemson can outscore a tough Georgia team (and with the two offenses on display in this matchup, outscore is a fitting word) then you would have to think Boyd would have a leg up on other Heisman Hopefuls. Then if he can lead the Tigers to victory over either FSU or USC (and assuming Clemson doesn’t suffer an upset loss), Boyd should at least be in NYC for the Heisman presentation if not the favorite. Go 3-0 against the Bulldogs, ‘Noles, and Gamecocks and only a perfect season by Alabama’s AJ McCarron or Texas A&M’s Manziel could rival perfecting such a difficult schedule. Win the ACC along with beating the best the SEC East has to offer puts you in elite company and Boyd is ready to be apart of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdldOjwn6i0

Why He Won’t – One word that comes to mind for many when thinking about Tajh Boyd: inconsistent. Despite going into his senior year, Boyd still has a lot of potential that can be tapped. Sometimes he relies too much on his strong arm to make a throw, and he needs to become more consistent. 13 picks is a number that needs to go down to single digits, but facing two SEC defenses and an SEC-caliber defense in FSU makes it a real possibility that that number could stay the same or go up. Defenses will also key in more on Sammy Watkins since DeAndre Hopkins departed for the riches of the NFL and was taken in the first round. Boyd did improve a lot between his sophomore and junior campaigns, and you hope he will make the same improvement from year 3 to year 4. But making a jump that big is asking a lot of a player, especially two seasons in a row. We will have a much clearer picture of where Boyd is after the August 31 matchup with Georgia.

Next 5 to Watch

Ka’Deem Carey (Arizona)

Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina)

Todd Gurley (Georgia)

AJ McCarron (Alabama)

Aaron Murray (Georgia)

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