NBA Finals Preview: Why the Spurs Might Win

The 2013 NBA Finals matchup of the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs is a dream come true to even the most casual of basketball fans. This series will feature ten NBA All-Stars, five current and five former, as well as both of the 2013 All-Star game’s head coaches in Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra.

The Heat came into these playoffs with a league-best 66-16 regular season record. The team’s dominance continued through the first two rounds of the playoffs, as the Heat lost just one game prior to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat’s 7-game battle in the ECF with the young, scrappy, well-coached Indiana Pacers tested Miami’s fortitude. Still, Miami was the better team, and ultimately found a way to win. The series concluded with a convincing 99-76 Miami victory in Game 7.

The Spurs, who finished the season at 58-24, did not face the same challenge in their path to the finals. After sweeping the Lakers in the first round, the Spurs conceded two games to the sharp-shooting Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Semis, but would eventually advance after Golden State went cold. In the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs handled the Memphis Grizzlies with ease, winning in 4 games with superior defense and methodical offensive sets.

Despite their grueling two-week contest with the Pacers, the Heat are favored to win a second straight NBA Championship. Most analysts feel that the firepower of reigning 4-time MVP LeBron James, along with sidekicks Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, is simply too much for any team to overcome in a 7-game series. In other words, when they are clicking, the Miami Heat play the best basketball in the NBA.

However, even though they’ve been deemed the underdogs by Vegas oddsmakers, the Spurs do pose a significant threat to LeBron’s quest for a second ring in as many years. How? Matchups.

The NBA, for better or worse (worse in my opinion), has become increasingly conducive to 1-on-1 offense. Therefore, the advantages in individual defensive matchups can be more salient points of analysis than advantages of team defense. This method of examination evaluates the Heat and Spurs based on the matchups at each of the 5 positions. It is in this sort of breakdown that San Antonio may have an edge on King James and co.

The first matchup is at point guard: Tony Parker vs. Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole.

Tony Parker is coming into the finals hot as a pistol, averaging 7.2 apg in the playoffs to compliment his 23 ppg. Parker is shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor, and thus far, no team has been able to slow him down. Though Chalmers and Cole are relatively strong defenders, they will undoubtedly struggle with Parker’s ability to penetrate the lane. In a series where every possession will be invaluable, Parker’s experience and superb ball-handling should make this matchup the most lopsided of the series.

Shooting guard: Danny Green vs. Dwyane Wade.

This one will be interesting. It would be ludicrous to make the argument that Green is a better player than Wade. Wade is a future Hall of Famer and one of the most talented 2-guards of his generation. However, Wade has struggled in these playoffs, particularly against the Pacers and Lance Stephenson. Though he lacks Wade’s skillset, Stephenson is bigger, and plays aggressive defense. The 6’6” Green comes from a similar mold.

The former Tar Heel has been a defensive stopper for the Spurs all season. In the playoffs, Green held his own against Stephen Curry who is quickly becoming one of the leagues most dangerous offensive weapons. If Wade’s knee continues to slow him down, the younger Green may limit his scoring contributions. On the other side, Green is shooting the ball at a high percentage. The fourth-year shooting guard has made 28 three-pointers this post season and is shooting the ball at 43 percent from beyond the arc.

 Small forward: Kawhi Leonard vs. LeBron James

This will be the second most lopsided matchup of the series. James has emphatically demonstrated that he is the best player on the planet. He is on a historic run in these playoffs, and has been able to play even better in crunch time. Leonard is slightly undersized, and will need to use his quick feet to stay in front of LeBron, a task that is all but impossible. The Heat are at their best when James acts as a facilitator as well as a scorer. Leonard will be most effective if he is able to limit James’ playmaking opportunities, and keep him out of the paint. LeBron should have a huge series nonetheless.

 Power forward: Tim Duncan vs. Chris Andersen/Udonis Haslem

The Spurs will clearly have the upper hand at power forward. Though he is aging, Duncan has been as effective as ever this season. His ability to draw fouls in the post will be an asset as he goes against two aggressive defenders. Andersen and Haslem are both known for being over-zealous at times. Andersen loves to block shots and will likely be fooled by Duncan’s head fakes. Haslem is second on the Heat in personal fouls and could be in foul trouble for most of the series. However, both Haslem and Birdman are high-energy rebounders and could make up for their lack of skill by dominating the offensive glass.

Center: Tiago Splitter vs. Chris Bosh

Bosh and Splitter play very different styles of basketball. Bosh is far more effective on the perimeter when he can face the basket and hit his mid range jumper. Splitter is more of a Roy Hibbert-type, though without Hibbert’s repertoire of post moves. Splitter is a decent rebounder and gets most of his points on layups and dunks. Neither player should be a huge factor in the series.

Off the bench: Manu Ginobili vs. Ray Allen

Ginobili and Allen are both crucial components in their teams’ success. Allen, one of the sport’s all-time great shooters, will look to run off screens and hit big threes in transition. Ginobili, also excellent from long-range, will give the Spurs a new feel when he comes off the bench. Ginobili is one of the most creative players in the league and has a knack for finding the open man. Ginobili should see more time than Allen, and he’ll help diminish Heat scoring runs with clutch shot making.