Inside & Outside the Syrian Civil War: Will the Conflict Spread?

By Cameron Roda on March 31, 2013

As American citizens and politicians bicker and wedge themselves into a legislative stalemate, citizens half a world away spend their days fighting for their lives against an oppressive government. Over two years ago, the Syrian Civil War erupted with a bang, an implosive rebel aggression against an increasingly dictatorial government led by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. With more than 60,000 casualties, the bloodshed inside Syria pits a government against its people, forcing Syrian citizens to decide between two choices: fight or flee.

Citizens that chose to fight make up the rebel alliance allied against Assad’s military regime. The Syrians who chose to flee fanned out in all directions, seeking refuge inside one of Syria’s neighboring countries. According to the UN Refugee Agency, over 1.2 million Syrian citizens have left the country in seek of refuge, more than 360,000 of which have fled to Lebanon.

American news coverage focuses largely on the slaughtering of Syrian citizens by their own government, but what often goes unnoticed is the effect Syria’s civil war has on neighboring countries.

Besides the massive influx of Syria refugees, Lebanon has also seen the fighting between Syrian forces and rebels cross the Syrian-Lebanese borders, with battles occurring inside the Lebanese city of Tripoli on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea.

Over 30 Lebanese casualties have resulted from battles crossing into Lebanon from Syria, and Beirut restaurant owner Nicholas Lutfallah explains that Lebanese citizens “wonder when their (Syria’s) war will spill over here.”

Lebanon’s religious demographics are unique, as Shia and Sunni populations inside the country are virtually even. Shia and Sunni are two different religious groups within Islam that possess slight alterations on the same set of beliefs, comparable to the differences between Catholics and Protestants throughout European history.

Lutfallah believes that a majority of the Lebanese people support the rebels against the Syrian government, but supporters of the Assad regime still exist. “The only citizens who back Assad are the Shia Muslims and the Alawi Muslims,” Lutfallah said.

Alawi Muslims in Lebanon support Assad because he too is Alawi, while Shia Muslims do not want to see Assad overthrown in a country where almost 75% of the population identifies as Sunni Muslims.

The Arab Spring resulted in uprisings in 18 different countries throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa, but Syria is the only country of that group to enter a civil war, something that is worrisome to Ohio State Human Rights & International Law professor John Quigley.

Compared to past conflicts in the Middle East, the Syrian conflict has “gone on much longer than the others – that’s the major problem,” Quigley said, “It hasn’t gotten resolved quickly and this outflow of people from the country has created difficulties for the region that we haven’t seen from other situations.”

Abdullah Ahmed, 10, who suffered burns from a Syrian government airstrike and fled his home with his family, stands outside their tent at a camp for displaced Syrians (AP Photo/Muhammed Muheisen, Creative Commons – FreedomHouse)

But Professor Quigley discussed a certain unwritten rule in the UN called The Responsibility to Protect, a principle for UN countries to follow “in situations where a serious breakdown in a country results in the widespread violation of the rights of the population occurs,” through the use of their militaries.

What remains to be seen is when the Syrian conflict will cease, a question which neither Professor Quigley nor Nicholas Lutfallah had an answer for. The recently volatile nature and rumors of chemical weapon use by the Assad regime suggest that the civil war in Syria will not be ending any time soon, but there is no doubt that when it does end, the shifted demographics in the region will reflect the effects the war had on Syria’s neighboring countries.

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