Final Four Preview: Here's Who Will Win
March Madness has brought us some of the best moments from this year’s college basketball season. There have been game winners, monster individual performances and strategic battles.
Unfortunately, we lost 64 great teams along the way. But what makes the ending of the tournament so special is that every team left deserves to be here. The four teams left in this tournament–Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State and Wisconsin–all figured it out and strung together four straight wins.
These four teams have dominated opponents and muscled their way to be considered the best teams in the country. With the Final Four set to kick off at 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, I wanted to break down the teams playing.
1-Seed Duke Vs. 7-Seed Michigan State (5:09 p.m. CT, CBS)
Duke University, Atlantic Coast Conference
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski (943-251)
Tournament Appearances: 31, Sweet 16′s: 22, Elite 8′s: 14, Final 4′s: 12, Championships: 4 (’90-’91, ’91-’92, ’00-’01, ’09-’10)
The Duke Blue Devils have been one of the most talented teams in college basketball this year. The Blue Devils have been led by a trio of freshmen that have taken the country by storm.
Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justice Winslow have shown that Duke’s youth is something to be worried about. Duke has had only one game all tournament that was decided by less than 10 points. The Blue Devils have the highest scoring offense out of all Final Four teams, averaging 70.5 points per game in the tournament.
A fast paced game would play right into Duke’s strengths, but they will have to make sure their rebounding effort is also there. With a high scoring game where a lot of shots are going up, the Blue Devils will have to hold their own on the boards.
Michigan State University, Big Ten Conference
Coach: Tom Izzo (494-198)
Tournament Appearances: 18, Sweet 16′s: 13, Elite 8′s: 9, Final 4′s: 7, Championships: 1 (’00-’01)
Michigan State has been one of the most lovable teams in all of this tournament. The Spartans started their round of 64 play against Georgia. Michigan State controlled the game for the most part, but almost let their lead slip away late. The Spartans rallied, and did just enough to get them to the next round.
Number two seed, Virginia, awaited the Spartans. A rematch from last year’s tournament did not disappoint, as Michigan State utilized senior, Travis Trice, who scored 23 points. Trice hit a deep three pointer to put the Spartans up by eight late in the game, giving no hope for a Cavalier comeback.
The Spartans then survived to beat Oklahoma and escaped with an Elite Eight overtime win over Louisville. An amazing upset journey led the Spartans and Tom Izzo to their seventh Final Four in the last 17 years.
The Spartans are a group of kids that just don’t quit. They have played some of their best basketball in this tournament. The leadership shown by Travis Trice has been enough for the Spartans to survive thus far, but beating Duke won’t be a cakewalk.
My Pick: Duke and Michigan State come from two of the toughest conferences in all of college basketball. The Big Ten and ACC are continually the top two conferences in the country, and their rigorous conference schedule should have prepared both of these teams for this moment.
My first question is, what is Michigan State going to do with Jahlil Okafor? Though Okafor was extremely quiet in the Blue Devil’s wins over Utah and Gonzaga, he will be a constant problem for the undersized Spartans. No one on Michigan State’s roster is taller than 6-foot-9.
The Spartans also have the tall task of slowing down Justice Winslow. The freshman forward has turned up his game, hitting nearly 50 percent of his shots during the last two rounds. I am assuming Dawson will be guarding Winslow, so that is a battle I can’t wait to see.
On the other hand, how does Duke stop the second coming of Kemba Walker, that is Travis Trice? Trice has torn defenses apart, hitting outside shots and has been able to get into the middle of defenses setting his teammates up. The senior is trying to end his career on a high note, and Duke will have their work cut out for them trying to stop him.
Also, the Blue Devils have to deal with the March Magician, Tom Izzo. Izzo has proven once again that he is one of the best, if not the best, coaches when it comes to tournament time. Everyone gave up hope on these Spartans early in the season when they lost to Texas Southern and Nebraska. Everyone except for Tom Izzo.
The Michigan native pulled his team together and has them playing their best basketball of the season, and for this reason I am sticking with the Cinderella Spartans.
Michigan State 66, Duke 62
1-Seed Kentucky Vs. 1-Seed Wisconsin (7:49 p.m. CT, CBS)
University of Kentucky, Southeastern Conference
Coach: John Calipari (190-37)
Tournament Appearances:5, Sweet 16′s: 5, Elite 8′s: 5, Final 4′s: 4, Championships: 1 (’11-’12)
Kentucky has been the most dominant college basketball team all season long. The Wildcats have yet to lose, and have survived many tough challenges so far. The Wildcats skated by in their first three games of the tournament.
Hampton, Cincinnati and West Virginia never really stood a chance against the Lexington Legends. It wasn’t until Kentucky’s Elite 8 match up with Notre Dame that people started to think this team could lose.
Notre Dame instilled a fantastic game plan, and kept the Wildcats on the ropes the entire game. But Kentucky, just like any great team in college basketball history, found a way to win. It may have been ugly down the stretch, but a win is a win and the Wildcats are heading to their fourth Final Four in five years.
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Big Ten Conference
Coach: Bo Ryan (356-124)
Tournament Appearances: 14, Sweet 16′s: 7, Elite 8′s: 3, Final 4′s: 2, Championships: 0
The lovable Wisconsin Badgers have been able to do just enough to get by in every game this tournament. The Badgers kicked off the round of 64 with a match up against 16 seed, Coastal Carolina. The Badgers didn’t play great, but they hit their shots and made enough defensive stops to keep the game from getting interesting.
In Wisconsin’s round of 32 match up, they had to fight off a fury by Oregon’s senior guard, Joseph Young. Young played his final game in a Duck’s uniform scoring 30 points. But Wisconsin survived.
Next up for the Badgers was a pesky North Carolina team; a few late missed free throws sent the Badgers to their second consecutive Elite Eight. A rematch of last year’s Elite Eight game versus Arizona was set to take place, and for the send year in a row the Badgers left the game headed to the Final Four.
Wisconsin’s offense is one of the most efficient in the country. The Badgers are averaging 1.24 points per possession over their last three games. John Wooden Award finalist Frank Kaminsky has been a huge reason for the efficient offense. Kaminsky has been tough to deal with as he has the ability to post you up, or take you out behind the arc and score.
My Pick:
I think I am more excited about this game than any potential National Championship matchup. This is a classic battle of offense versus defense. Kentucky worried me against Notre Dame. They showed they weren’t perfect defensively, and they allowed a lot of easy points.
A couple of things I saw in that Notre Dame game really made me question if Kentucky can finish this off. The Wildcats switched on every screen, allowing a quicker Notre Dame guard to be matched up with a slower Kentucky big man. Usually the Notre Dame guard would beat his man to the hole, and either find an open teammate as the help defense stepped over or finished it himself.
Secondly, the Wildcats gave up way too many offensive rebounds, 13 in total. The Wildcats would send two guys to try and block any shot Notre Dame took in the lane. If the Kentucky players missed the block and the shot didn’t go in, it resulted in no box out and an easy rebound for the open Notre Dame player.
Lastly, Kentucky allowed too many backdoor cuts. The Wildcats were lazy on defense on several occasions, and that showed as the Irish got several easy baskets under the hoop. We know what Kentucky’s offense can do, but can their defense step up to beat a highly efficient Wisconsin offense? We shall see.
Wisconsin has been one of the best shooting teams all year, so their shooting success in the tournament shouldn’t come as a surprise to many. The Badgers have so many weapons, and so much experience. AP First Team All American Frank Kaminsky has the ability to hit the mid-range jumper or step out and drain a three. That is something I think Kentucky will have a tough time defending.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley Stein will have to step out and guard Kaminsky on the perimeter, something the Kentucky big men haven’t had to do much in this tournament. If Kaminsky isn’t hitting, the Badgers have cold blooded Sam Dekker. Dekker has been money this tournament, and will need to continue to play like he has the past couple of games.
Dekker is one of the best players in this tournament in general, and when it comes to creating his own shot. The 6-foot-9 forward has made it difficult for defenses to defend him. Seniors Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Duje Dukan are the backbone to this Wisconsin team, and they will need to use their experience and leadership if Bo Ryan wants to make his first ever National Championship game.
With all of that said, I just can’t pick against the Wildcats.
Kentucky 72, Wisconsin 69
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