Are early polls relevant leading up to the election?

By Alex Veeneman on May 27, 2012


Questions have arisen whether polls conducted in May will have an affect on the November election.
(Photo courtesy of the Associated Press)

The last week saw two separate polls examining the preference of candidates in the state of Florida. A poll by Quinnipac University saw the former Massachusetts governor (and presumptive Republican nominee) Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama by 6 points. Meanwhile, a separate poll by NBC News and Marist College found Obama ahead of Romney by 4 points.

It leads to a question. Today is Sunday May 27. The election is not until Tuesday November 6. Are the polls conducted this month relevant, and will they be relevant in six months time?

The chief of staff to the late Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts Eric Mogilnicki told NPR that there is a problem with that. “There are so many things that are going to happen in the next six months,” Mogilnicki said. “There’s going to be literally a billion dollars in ads on TV, and those are going to make a difference. Economic conditions are going to make a difference. There could be events overseas that can’t be anticipated now. There’s going to be debates.”

Do you agree? Should polls be conducted this early? Would they benefit?

Join in the conversation. Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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