Why Michigan Will Return to the Final Four (and Why they Won't)

It’s that time of year again—the NCAA tournament is here, and so is all the madness that annually comes with it. Last year, University of Michigan took advantage of that madness with an unforgettable run to the Final Four. But can the Wolverines, a 2 seed in the tournament’s Midwest region, do the same this time around? Here’s why Michigan will return to the Final Four and why they won’t.

Why they will:

•  Their offense: It’s simple: If Michigan returns to the Final Four, or even wins the national championship, it will be because of their offense. Michigan’s offense is beautiful to watch, with shooters everywhere and unselfish plays by everyone. They boast an incredible offensive efficiency of more than 1.15 points per possession, meaning they average more than 1.15 points every time they have the ball; to put this in perspective, only three other teams in the nation can say the same. This all puts Michigan at 3^rd in the nation in KenPom.com’s offensive efficiency rankings. With an offense like this, Michigan can outscore anyone—and that, of course, is the key to advancing in March and April.  

• When they get hot, they get really hot: When this Michigan team gets hot shooting the ball, they are seemingly unbeatable. Just ask Illinois about what happened in early March; Michigan rained in 16 of 23 (69.6%!) three-point attempts and absolutely destroyed the Fighting Illini by 31 points. Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert are the ones most prone to fill up the stat sheet, but Glenn Robinson III and Derrick Walton, as well as Zak Irvin and Spike Albrecht off the bench, have all shown the ability to get hot. If a few of Michigan’s players all get on a shooting streak at the same time in the NCAA tournament, they’ll be almost impossible to outscore.

• John Belein: If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my first four semesters at University of Michigan, it’s to always trust John Belein. The new heights Michigan’s basketball program is currently experiencing can be attributed completely to him. He took a program that could barely compete in the NIT and has now led them to five NCAA tournaments in the past six years. He took a program that hadn’t raised a meaningful banner in its arena’s rafters in decades and has now raised three in three years—two for Big Ten conference championships and one for a Final Four berth. He found players like Tim Hardaway, Jr., Trey Burke, and Caris LeVert, all of whom were unheralded and barely sought after recruits, and has turned two into NBA rookies with bright futures and the third into an All-Big Ten Second Team player. He took Michigan from the dumpsters to the doorstep of a national championship. With him on the sidelines, don’t count out Michigan to be back in the Final Four when April rolls around.

John Belein has brought Michigan basketball back to national prominence. Can he help them stay there with a return trip to the Final Four?

• Playing close to home:  One thing that will certainly help the Wolverines on their road to the Final Four is that they won’t really be that far down the road. The benefit to Michigan being a 2 seed in the tournament is that they play in Milwaukee for their first two games and in Indianapolis for their next two, assuming they keep winning. Michigan fans are known to travel well anyways, but being so close to home, as opposed to last year’s tournament games in Dallas, will encourage even more fans to make the trip to give their team a home-court advantage. Against potential opponents like Texas and Duke, that will help make the road to another Final Four much easier and more likely.

• Experience: Michigan might be one of the youngest teams in the tournament, with only two upperclassmen seeing any significant minutes. But they arguably have more experience than any other team in the tournament, too. All but two contributors were part of last year’s Final Four run. These guys have been here before. They know what it takes to win in March. And even freshmen Derrick Walton, Jr. and Zak Irvin don’t lack too much in the experience department. They’ve both seen plenty of playing time this season, have played in some of the toughest venues in college basketball (Assembly Hall, Breslin Center, Cameron Indoor), and have been part of numerous comebacks of more than ten points. This Michigan team undoubtedly knows how to handle big-game situations, tough venues, and whatever adversity comes at them. Being so battle-tested will help them gain even more experience on their way to a second Final Four in as many years.

Why they won’t:

• They go cold: It happens to every team, no matter how great or awful. Sometimes a team is going to get into a shooting slump. What will happen to Michigan if most of their shooters end up riding cold streaks in the first few games of the tournament? What if the shots just aren’t falling, like against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament championship game? Very likely, the Wolverines will lose. Although they have improved throughout the season on getting to the rim, Michigan—without Mitch McGary—has no true post presence to threaten a ton of points in the paint. Michigan is also subpar as a team at drawing fouls and getting many free points at the free throw line. If the shots aren’t falling for this team, then, they will almost certainly not be making the trip to Arlington, Texas for the Final Four and a shot at a championship.

• Defense is half the game: We’ve all heard the cliché: defense wins championships. While this saying is probably overblown, a lack of defense can certainly lose a championship. That is going to be the biggest fear for fans of the maize and blue in the next few weeks. Michigan’s defense ranks 104^th in overall defensive efficiency. There have been times this season that Michigan either looks like they don’t care or they just don’t know what they’re doing when opponents have the ball. If they don’t figure out how to stop teams from getting to the basket and scoring at will, it won’t matter how hot Michigan is—they’ll be watching the Final Four from home in Ann Arbor.

• Their draw: Within 30 seconds of Michigan’s seed and the rest of its region in the tournament being announced, my Twitter timeline had flooded with people referring to the Midwest as the “region of death.” Three of last year’s final four—Wichita State, Michigan, and Louisville—are all in the region, as well as Duke, who many thought could be a potential 1 seed before losing in the ACC tournament championship game. For Michigan to make it to the Final Four, they’ll have to go through a brutal stretch looking something like Wofford, Texas, Duke, and either Wichita or Louisville. It’s hard to imagine Michigan being able to replicate their magic from last year and survive this region.

The “region of death”–can Michigan make it out alive?

• Lack of depth up front: This has been the biggest concern for Michigan ever since Mitch McGary went out in late December. Without him, Michigan really only has two big guys that can play important minutes. We’ve seen that when they have foul trouble, Michigan’s defensive woes are even more pronounced than usual. Their offense is hurt too, as Max Bielfeldt, the de facto third string center (standing at only about 6’7″), is much less of a threat to score points in the paint. If Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford can’t stay in the game, Michigan will be in big trouble.

• Luck (or lack thereof): As subjective as it is, in a one-loss elimination tournament like March Madness, luck is crucial. A bounce here, a last second buzzer-beater there—sometimes these things matter more than anything else when it comes down to the end of a game. Just ask Trey Burke. Unfortunately for Michigan, it seems like luck has been on their side all year long, from Trey Burke’s shot to go to the Elite Eight, to Glenn Robinson III’s game winner at Purdue, to Illinois’ last second miss on a bunny in the Big Ten Tournament. It might be trivial, but good karma and lucky bounces and winning close games by one point can only last so long. Michigan has already won six games by three points or fewer. If Michigan finds itself in a game being decided at the buzzer in the tournament, they might have already used up too much of their luck to come out with the win.